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Nor was the reported source of the poor performance startling
news. Those of us who make our living tracking the region’s
demographics have long come around to the idea that our troubles
in creating jobs are inextricably connected to the difficulties
in maintaining our overall population. |
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The subtle but steady exodus of
residents from our region--especially from southern New
England-in recent decades--coupled with only modest inflows
during boom times, has left New England with a disturbingly
bleak long-term demographic outlook. Conventional wisdom seems
to indicate that the future belongs to the booming South, West,
or Southwest, and not New England. |
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Consider for example, the
magnitude of the “out-migration” Connecticut and Massachusetts
have experienced among mid-life and older working-age
populations, according to the Census. In Connecticut, between
1990 and 2000, the number of 40-64 year-olds who left the state
was a staggering 85,000, representing four percent of the
state’s entire working-age population. Massachusetts fared
little better. In Massachusetts, the 96,000 people who up and
left the Bay State during the 1990’s represented 2.5% of the
working-age population—the equivalent of losing a city the size
of New Bedford. And this transpired during a period that we
look back on one of relative economic prosperity. |
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Searching for optimism in the face
of such data can disheartening, but one key factor that
continues to work decisively in New England’s favor is the
wealth of college and universities in the region. It is time we
better recognized and took advantage of this edge. In fact,
higher education may be--to borrow from Abraham Lincoln--“our
last best hope” for sustaining our population, workforce, and
economy. |
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To be sure, the economic edge that
our higher education institutions contribute in the form of
innovation, new technologies, and sizable federal research and
development funding has long been recognized. |
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But what has not been so widely
appreciated, and what the conventional wisdom about our
population decline tends to discount, is the powerful potential
of higher education institutions to affect the future size and
quality of our population and workforce. |
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Helping to make this case is the
research brief we authored, entitled
Higher Ed Matters.
The study examines the largely unheralded but central role that
local colleges and universities have played in drawing young
people into the region--in effect, providing a steady, reliable
supply of “replacement residents” who have proven crucial in
sustaining the regional economy. |
| The findings
contained in
Higher Ed Matters--along with those in an
expanded, to-be-published report, New England 2020,--highlight
a long-term positive impact on our population level and
workforce from the sizable inflow of young people arriving
annually in pursuit of college degrees. |
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Using 2000 Census data, we looked
closely at the cohort of individuals who indicated that they had
migrated into one of the six New England states between 1995 and
2000. What we found surprised us: |
- In all states but New
Hampshire and Maine, the in-migration rate for the
college-aged was more than twice as high as the rate of
migration for the general population.
- In Massachusetts, for
example, the in-migration rate for those aged 18-29 (a
category that captures both undergraduate and graduate
students) was 27 percent while the rate for all ages was
just 10 percent. The difference in Vermont was 32 versus 15
percent.
- While we expected that
students would show up in large numbers, especially in the
younger age categories, we were still surprised at the
degree to which in-migration and education were intertwined.
In fact, education was the motive for more than half of
all in-migrants aged 20-24 in every New England state
except Connecticut and Maine. In those states, the numbers
were still significant, with 43 and 44 percent of their age
20-24 populations arriving for education purposes,
respectively.
- Moreover, we found that
one in three in-migrants aged 15-19 that came to Maine, New
Hampshire, and Connecticut had arrived for school purposes.
More than half of those aged 15-19 arriving in Rhode Island,
Massachusetts, and Vermont, came for school. *
|
| Since our research
reveals that college students, as a group, remain the sole
bright spot in a bleak demographic picture, it is not an
understatement to suggest that our future hinges on the
willingness of thousands of young people from across the nation
(and locally) to launch their educations, their graduate
studies, and, often, their careers here in New England. |
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Understanding college students as
a wellspring of our population growth forces us to rethink and
expand our conception of higher education institutions as not
only sources of innovation but also as “future worker
attractors.” |
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We must now set for ourselves the
task of crafting a policy agenda that builds on our existing
advantage in higher education. Each New England state needs a
strategy—embraced by its business, government, education, and
non-profit leadership—to attract and retain workers. At the
same time, our policies must also encourage and persuade young
people native to the region to attend college and stay here. |
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Because so much of the demographic
change in the New England states is associated with college
attendance, we believe the public policy initiatives with the
most potential to foster in-migration to the region are those
aimed at improving the quality, access, and affordability of New
England’s higher education institutions. Investment in and
promotion of higher education—public and private—is one of the
most effective ways of meeting our population, workforce, and
economic challenges. |
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Particularly important are
business/higher education/K12 partnerships that develop college
aspirations and college readiness as early as middle school.
Such partnerships—by boosting college participation rates—would
help us make the most of our existing native population as a
potential economic resource. This is especially important
during a time when population growth is low and in-migration of
workers from elsewhere remains a challenge. |
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Also worthy of consideration are
campus-to-workplace “bridge” programs, in which industries,
state policy-makers, and higher education institutions
collaborate much more closely to attract recent graduates into
those areas of the labor force generating the most demand for
new workers. Systematic internship opportunities that allow
students to develop connections to those sectors of the economy
before graduation are one type of bridge that could be
considered. |
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Finally, we note that a vibrant
higher education system does not permanently inoculate states
against out-migration of their former college students. The
college experience introduces a new population to the various
states, but whether this population remains or not, is a
function of what the state economy offers once students complete
their baccalaureates or post-graduate schooling. |
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The economic vitality of the
region today is clouded not only by limited job opportunities,
but excessively high living costs. The lack of affordable
housing is a prime factor in the loss of our young,
college-educated families and professionals. The “Housing
Report Card” recently issued by the Boston Foundation found that
Boston has become the most expensive metropolitan area in the
nation—a distinction not lost on the current generation of
students. |
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The task before us is clear: In
addition to attracting young people to the region through our
excellent higher education institutions, we need to give them a
reason to stay here, in the region, once they obtain their
degrees. We can not afford to forget that our future—as much as
theirs—depends upon it. |
 |
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Stephen Coelen is Professor of
Economics at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the
University of Connecticut. Co-author Joseph B. Berger is
Associate Professor of Education at the University of
Massachusetts Amherst. |
|
*Census figures group students
ages 15-19 together. One might assume that had we been able to
look strictly at in-migrants of college-age, those percentages
would be even higher. –S.C. and J.B. |
